한국과 중국의 관광객 수와 서비스산업 GDP간의 인과관계 및 효과에 관한 연구

초록

This paper studies the causalities and effects on the relationship between the number of tourists and tertiary industry GDP in Korea and China for the period of 1988-2009, using the unit root test, the Granger causality test, the cointegration test, and VECM. The results of this papers are as follows: Firstly, In the unit root test, this paper found that each time series was unstable one that has unit root. Secondly, in the Granger casuality test, the study results show that there is bidirectional casuality between the number of tourists and real GDP of tertiary industry in Korea and China. Thirdly, there is cointegration relation between all models of the number of tourists and real GDP for the period of 1988-2009. Finally this paper carried on impulse-response and variance decomposition test to verify the relation of each variable. In impulse-response test, it was proved the number of tourists represents a negative correlation with real GDP of tertiary industry for the period 1988-2009 of Korea, but the number of tourists of China for the same period represents a positive correlation with real GDP. Through the variance decomposition test, it was proved that real GDP of tertiary industry in Korea and China for the analysis period is the most affected variable of the each data.

키워드