잠재 산림분포 변화를 고려한 토지이용도가 장래 기후변화에 미치는 영향 모사

초록

Future climate according to land-use change was simulated by regional climate model. The goal of study was to predict the distribution of meteorological elements using the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF). The KME (Korea Ministry of Environment) mediumcategory land-use classification was used as dominant vegetation types. Meteorological modeling requires higher and more sophisticated land-use and initialization data. The WRF model simulations with HyTAG land-use indicated certain change in potential vegetation distribution in the future (2086-2088). Compared to the past (1986-1988) distribution, coniferous forest area was decreased in metropolitan and areas with complex terrain. The research shows a possibility to simulate regional climate with high resolution. As a result, the future climate was predicted to 4.5°which was 0.5°higher than prediction by Meteorological Administration. To improve future prediction of regional area, regional climate model with HyTAG as well as high resolution initial values such as urban growth and CO2 flux simulation would be desirable.

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