기후변화 시나리오에 따른 도시홍수 피해액의 비교

초록

This study analyzed escalating urban flooding risks driven by climate change and rapid urbanization, aiming to propose effective mitigation strategies. Using climate change scenarios SSP2-4.5 (medium-level emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high-level emissions), the XP-SWMM urban flood model, and an enhanced Multi-Dimensional Flood Damage Assessment (MD-FDA) framework, this study quantitatively evaluated urban flood risk and associated economic impacts. First, future rainfall patterns and frequencies projects under both scenarios were incorporated into XP-SWMM to assess the climate change influence on urban flooding. Second, the model then simulated rainfall-runoff dynamics and rban drainage system performance, enabling a detailed analysis of flood depth and spatial extent across different rainfall intensities and return periods. Finally, the MD-FDA method quantified economic losses, including damages to buildings, human life, and public infrastructure. Flood risks were evaluated for 30- and 50-year return periods under each climate scenario. Results revealed that the SSP5-8.5 scenario produced significantly higher rainfall, leading to deeper and more widespread flooding than SSP2-4.5, causing substantially greater economic losses. These findings underscore the amplifying effect of climate change on urban flood hazards. The improved MD-FDA method comprehensively captures physical, economic, and social impacts, offering more robust and reliable damage estimates than conventional fragmented approaches.

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